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Everyone knows that the earth spins every day, but I’m not sure it’s ever felt quite like everyone’s heads were spinning right along with it!
The on-off-on-amplify-pause tit-for-tat on tariffs has created the most chaotic and pendular stock markets the world has ever seen. Everyone’s retirement accounts exploded for a few weeks, then imploded, and then maybe eked out a tiny bit of hope in the last day or so.
Okay, this isn’t a financial community, so why should public servants care all that much, beyond interest in our personal accounts?
Because this past week was the biggest reminder of all that the biggest risk to public programs comes from within.
The Economy’s Warning Shot
The big “R” word has reared its ugly head in recent weeks, with some experts virtually guaranteeing a recession in 2025.
Not just a US or European recession, but a global one.
And while there’s no direct trigger between the stock markets and the broader economy and public policy, there is almost certainly a degree of causality.
Which means that if a recession does take hold, we can be all but certain that governments around the world will start to reduce spending.
So all those bold, five-year plans that we’ve not only fleshed out, but committed funds to?
They might not be quite as secure as we’d thought.
The Risk We Never Really Talk About
This is one of those fundamental, existential risks that almost never seems to get addressed in any meaningful risk discussion. Every once in a while you might see it appear on a risk register, but it’s mostly just there to cover “strategic” risks, and rarely has any meaningful actions attributed to it.
And yet if 2025 hasn’t already shown us just how real this risk can be – and just how quickly a stable environment can spiral – then you just might be looking from the outside in before long.
This is a textbook case of strategic risk in the public sector — the kind that almost never gets flagged early, but causes the most damage when it hits.
I’m not a doomsayer, and I have zero interest in anyone’s programs getting shrunken due to political whims of the day.
But we all need to have this overarching risk conversation.
And we need to tackle it, before it’s too late.
If you’re thinking about how to tackle risks like this inside your organization, let me know in the comments, or send me a message. Always glad to swap ideas or just hear what’s showing up in your world.
